Following a post by Jane Gillett
Post by Jane GillettPost by JanetThe U.S. has a total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.0
Western European countries have low fertility rates, below the
replacement rate of 2.1.
Germany: 1.4
Holland: 1.8
Belgium: 1.8
Spain: 1.4
Italy: 1.4
Sweden 1.9.
UK 1.9
2.36 for world
Post by Jane GillettThat's reassuring to know.
the developing world has higher rates, particularly Africa is around
4, but its falling in most places. In the 50s for world it was 5 ish,
now its 2 ish
But, remember, we are living a *lot* longer.
"Current UN projections show a continued increase in population in the
near future (but a steady decline in the population growth rate), with
the global population expected to reach between 8.3 and 10.9 billion
by 2050.[11][12] UN Population Division estimates for the year 2150
range between 3.2 and 24.8 billion;[13] mathematical modeling supports
the lower estimate.[14]
One prediction is that population will soon stablise (I assume when
all developing world adopts "first" world lifestyles) , while another
predicts it will continue to rise at its current rate.
It took 300 years for the poulation to double from 1500, 100 years to
double again by the 1920s, 50 years to double by the 1970s and we
think it may have doubled again within a few years, holding the rate
at doubling every 50 years. Will this stop? We hope so.
Post by Jane GillettSo it's merely any increasing footprint,
particularly of developing countries, that's going to limit our environment
and hence our future.
*if* it stabilises and wealth keeps increasing in the developing
world, first you see people wanting the western diet, which means more
space for cattle. Then they want cars and freezers and air-con.
Then look at Europe, 100 years ago we tool a train once a year to the
coast, then we drove alll over the place in UK and took several
holidays, one by air to the Med. Now some people fly on a regular
basis, including long haul beach holidays and working in other
countries. The carbon from a couple doing Xmas shopping in NY is
about the same as running a small car all year.
China is building 50 new airports
A large number of wild habitats are protected, but in many places
enforecement is poor and in others , like the SE of England, we have a
network of small reserves, but from time to time, a govt which does
not care about wildlife or under pressure for, say, a new airport or
more housing will destroy some more wild land and you never get it
back. Many Metrosexual LOndon commentators now question the Green
Belt, how long before it falls to housing and airports for the
trendies with their pet bicycle mock green lifestyles?
New pressure is coming onto wilderness areas like the pole to exploit
oil reserves (including shale) , do the Russians give a **** for
wildlife? Do the Chinese?
</rant>
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Mike... . . . .